Rassie Erasmus, the director of rugby, has made an effort to imply that the Springboks are in a much more favorable situation than Ireland.
Ireland secured a tenacious victory over the Springboks last month to put themselves in prime position to finish at the top of Pool B in what was unquestionably the game of the World Cup thus far.
The All Blacks and Ireland will likely meet in the quarterfinals, with the Springboks expected to finish second in their pool and face France in the opening round.
However, this weekend’s match between Ireland and Scotland and the Springboks’ “bye” might result in as many as 20 possible qualification scenarios.
After four games, the Springboks have 15 log points, while Ireland and Scotland, who will play each other on Saturday in a contest that will determine the pool’s winner, have 14 and 10 points, respectively.
ERASMUS EXPLAINED A SERIES OF PERMUTATIONS THAT COULD COME INTO PLAY
Ireland will be eliminated if Scotland defeats them by at least eight points and without a bonus point, according to Erasmus. The team with the best points differential will advance if all three teams score 15 log points.
We will split because Ireland defeated us if Scotland has the best points differential, but only if they score four tries, defeat Ireland by more than 20 points, and add a bonus point for Ireland.
However, if Ireland has the best points differential, we will advance because we beat Scotland.
“From our perspective, we did what we had to do to get through, and we now have time to prepare for the various potential scenarios,” continued Erasmus. While others will get ready for France, others will get ready for the All Blacks.
We’ll have people practicing for Italy as well, but France and Italy still have games to play. There are still intriguing possibilities in the competition, especially because Italy is accustomed to playing against teams from the northern hemisphere.
BOKS HAPPY WITH WHERE THEY STAND
The Springboks will now need to wait until the weekend before the situation regarding the next round of the competition becomes clear.
“Winning the game, earning five league points, and managing to get a proper points difference gave us a chance to finish first or second in the pool, which was the big thing for us,” said Erasmus.
Additionally, there is a mathematically negligible probability that we may disagree. However, reaching close to 50 points was our objective, and we were aware that at times the game would get erratic due to the rotation of our group.
Both quarter-final places are still to be decided:
- According to the head-to-head criteria, where South Africa wins the pool, Scotland must defeat Ireland and deny the Irish a bonus point in order to finish second.
Ireland will win the pool on the basis of head-to-head competition with South Africa if they receive a bonus point and Scotland does not.
Ireland will qualify in second place behind South Africa if Scotland wins by a score of bonus points without receiving any points from the game. On the basis of head-to-head competition, the Springboks would win.
- If Scotland triumphs and both sides receive bonus points, they will join South Africa on 15 points, and the top slot in Pool B will be determined by points differential.
Scotland needs to defeat South Africa by at least 21 points (South Africa +117, Ireland +122, and Scotland +97) to take the lead. Having defeated South Africa, Ireland would then be eligible as runners-up under the head-to-head rule. South Africa will finish first on points differential and Scotland second on the head-to-head criteria if Scotland does not win by that much of a margin.
If Ireland defeats Scotland and earns two points, they will lock up first place.