OPINION: Rugbypass writer Ben Smith says the All Blacks under Scott Robertson should not follow a surefire formula for World Cup success, as the Springboks have not done.
The Boks are a hard-working, tenacious, and resilient team that plays a ferocious defense and depends heavily on luck. Their games are almost always close.
They were fortunate enough to win two consecutive knockout matches against France and England, but then they were spoilt for a third straight game.
After Cane was sent off for a high tackle and Frizell was sin-binned for tripping over an opponent’s leg, the team played with 14 men for a total of 64 minutes before winning 12-11 against New Zealand in the final.
Although South Africa’s lineout became a dysfunctional mess with flanker Deon Fourie chucking, the loss of hooker Bongi Mbonambi due to injury for the match was a huge blow. However, the impact of losing a player for eighty percent of the World Cup final was indisputable.
Despite playing with a man down for most of the match, the All Blacks came very close to winning. That’s all the information you require. Regardless of the cards, one side had to fight for their lives against a team that was severely outmatched, while the other side only lost because of their own errors.
One team had incredible luck in the first half of the game as events of the evening played out.
The All Blacks lost a man off the field for ten minutes and a cheap three points in the first two minutes of the Frizell incident.
South Africa’s second three-pointer came on a persistent offensive run that rightfully resulted in a penalty when Ethan de Groot failed to roll away.
In the third, Barnes acknowledged over the microphone that he “didn’t see the replay” of a questionable call on Ardie Savea.
From all accounts, it was a classic textbook pilfer—hands on the ball, feet supporting the weight of the body. Savea’s position could not be disturbed by the clean. Rather than an All Blacks penalty, South Africa scored three extra cheap points.
Leprechauns’ gold made up six of the first nine points; most teams would have been thrilled to get those. The rugby gods had been kind to this team more times than they deserved by now.
A few minutes before, Jordie Barrett’s chip kick inside the 22 hit an empty backfield, giving South Africa a major advantage due to the bounce of the ball.
Seemingly spared by divine intervention, the ball rebounded out of the direction of Ardie Savea, the leading chaser, and into the path of fullback Damian Willemse.
With the relatively simple conversion, the ball’s bounce cost the All Blacks a decisive two points, if not four. They were content with a penalty kick.
However, Sam Cane’s first red card as a professional player—which gave the Springboks an early Christmas present—was still to come.
As you can see, the Springboks had little control over the majority of the innocent incidents that kept them afloat in Paris. Sam Cane’s tackle height, Barnes’ perspective on Savea’s poach, or the bounce of Jordie Barrett’s chip were all unimportant to them.
In light of this, you might as well purchase some ladybugs, horseshoes, and four-leaf clovers when examining what to replicate from South Africa’s strategy. Is there anything else you believe could have the same unbelievable good fortune this team did?
What is the minimum number of rabbit feet required by a TMO in order to operate outside of their jurisdiction and reverse a try past four phases? Or for Jordie Barrett and Mo’unga to miss two kicks that may have taken the lead? Or for a warning about wasting time not to be penalized on a scrum feed?
It’s true that every side would like to be fortunate than unlucky, but it makes little sense to emulate South Africa’s strategy based on three victories by one point that could have gone either way.
Since taking over as “head coach” from 2021–2023, Jacques Nienaber has led the All Blacks to four victories out of seven, which is among the best coaching records in recent memory. In his brief tenure as the official head coach from, Rassie Erasmus finished with one victory out of four.
Despite winning two World Cups, they have only managed five victories out of eleven games, which is less than half of what they would have done against the All Blacks even if they have reignited the rivalry to be competitive.
Now that they haven’t been able to defeat the All Blacks, Robertson is expected to emulate them? Please spare us.
Long ago, long ago, New Zealand rugby made the mistake of trying to emulate South Africa’s approach. They adopted 10-man rugby and developed an obsession with size and power up front in an attempt to match theirs.
The shocking defeat to the Springboks at home in 1937 gave rise to the myth among influential people that 15-man rugby would never defeat South Africa.
For thirty years, the country struggled with identity until the All Blacks broke free in 1967, showcasing their attacking rugby style and revitalizing the nation.
South Africa has been ruled by the All Blacks during the professional era. Since 1996, the overall record has been 44-1-19 in favor of New Zealand.
The two other years the Springboks have managed to keep the All Blacks winless are 1998 and 2009.
Thank you, but no thanks. South African rugby does not need to be imitated by New Zealand.
